Author: Xiaguang think tank, original title: "Impact of changes in the international situation on cross-border trade exports and countermeasures", title from: AI generation
I. Scale and growth potential of global e-commerce market
According to public information, the global e-commerce retail sales in 2023 was about 5.8 trillion US dollars, and it is estimated that by 2027, this figure will exceed 8 trillion US dollars.
Among them,China is the country with the largest e-commerce transaction in the world, accounting for nearly half of the total global e-commerce retail sales.At the same time, it is also the country with the highest penetration rate of e-commerce in the world. The scale of online retail transactions accounts for about one-third of the total retail sales of consumer goods.

In terms of growth rate:
The e-commerce market in Southeast Asia showed an explosive growth trend in 2023, and the total transaction volume of e-commerce platforms reached US$ 114.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15%. Among them, Indonesia is one of the fastest growing e-commerce markets in Southeast Asia. In June 2024, the total sales of Shopee and Lazada platforms in Indonesia reached about 1.16 billion US dollars, an increase of about 84% year-on-year.
In 2023, the volume of e-commerce transactions in Latin America was about 509 billion US dollars, and it is expected to reach 923 billion US dollars by 2026, which also shows a strong growth trend. According to Statista’s forecast, from 2023 to 2027, the growth rate of retail e-commerce sales in Brazil will rank first among 20 countries in the world, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.6%; In 2023, Mexico’s e-commerce market maintained double-digit growth for five consecutive years, reaching 658 billion pesos, an increase of 24.6% compared with 2022, making Mexico the fastest growing e-commerce market in the world; Argentina’s e-commerce market grew by 29.9% in 2023, far exceeding the world average of 8.9%, ranking first in the world.
South Korea’s online retail market is expected to grow strongly with a compound annual growth rate of 7.9%, and the market size will reach 182.7 billion US dollars by 2028.
Second, the scale and overseas distribution of cross-border e-commerce market in China
According to public information, the scale of cross-border e-commerce market in China in 2023 (according to GMV statistics) is 1.4 trillion US dollars, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.5% compared with that in 2019, accounting for about one-third of the entire e-commerce market in China. It is estimated that by 2028, cross-border e-commerce in China will still maintain a compound annual growth rate of 11.3%.
According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, the United States is the largest destination country for cross-border export e-commerce in China, and mature markets such as Europe and the United States are still the main target markets for cross-border sellers in China. With the implementation of free trade agreement and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, emerging markets will gradually become a new round of "gold-digging point" for cross-border sellers, and the trading partners of cross-border export e-commerce in China tend to be more diversified.

Third, the overseas development of cross-border e-commerce in China
In recent years, thanks to the support of relevant domestic policies, the gradual clarification of market rules, and the gradual improvement of service ecosystems such as logistics, payment, software technology and even AI, China’s cross-border e-commerce has developed at a high speed, and has continuously released its kinetic energy and growth potential, which has become an important starting point and key link for China’s domestic trade to foreign trade and foreign trade online, and an important window and incremental engine for China’s economic integration into globalization.
Developed countries such as Europe and America are still the mainstream markets for cross-border export e-commerce in China because of their advantages such as high maturity of e-commerce, strong purchasing power of consumers and perfect logistics and distribution system. However, with the gradual saturation of mature markets and the increasingly fierce competition among sellers, the market entry threshold has gradually increased and the operation difficulty has also increased. Therefore, China sellers not only need to stand out from the competition through high-quality products and accurate market positioning, but also need to have strong brand power to meet the diversified consumption needs of consumers and gain their recognition and repurchase stickiness, so as to realize large-scale realization and sustainable development.
In recent years, the emerging market economy is growing rapidly, the consumer groups are characterized by a younger structure, and the penetration rate of Internet and mobile devices has increased significantly. For the cross-border export e-commerce sellers in China who have been deeply involved in mature markets, they have a significant advantage in the competition in emerging markets because of their rich operating experience and outstanding management capabilities. In addition, influenced by purchasing power and consumption habits, consumers in emerging markets pay more attention to product cost performance, which provides strong growth momentum for China sellers to actively expand emerging markets and become an important group in the global e-commerce map.
Fourth, cross-border e-commerce platforms and brands/sellers in China should focus on the following aspects.
(a) Europe, America, Southeast Asia, Brazil and other overseas regional countries have introduced cross-border e-commerce restrictions.
1. The United States: The United States "small exemption" rule reform, Ohio Democratic Senator Brown and Florida Republican Senator Scott called for ending the tax-free treatment of e-commerce goods worth less than 800 dollars. This means that,If the policy is implemented, the quantity of goods entering the United States through the "small exemption" rule may be affected.Especially cross-border e-commerce platforms in China such as Temu and Shein.
2. Europe: The EU General Product Safety Regulation (GPSR) came into effect on December 13th, 2024, which replaced the existing General Product Safety Directive (GPSD) and put forward stricter safety requirements for all non-food consumer goods sold in the EU market. All products must designate an authorized representative of the European Union (ODE), and clearly indicate the information of the person in charge in the product, packaging or accompanying documents. In 2023, the EPR (Extended Producer Responsibility) policies of Austria, Spain, Sweden and Italy came into effect, requiring sellers to be responsible for the disposal of the waste generated after the use of their products.
3. Southeast Asia: Indonesia’s Ministry of Trade announced that it will sign the revised Trade Minister Order No.31 of 2023, the core contents of which includeSocial media is prohibited as a platform for commodity sales.It directly affects the business of platforms such as TikTokShop in Indonesia. Southeast Asia’s vigilance against cross-border sellers is partly due to the fact that cross-border sellers use low-price strategies to squeeze the living space of local retailers, which has triggered the fear of local governments.
4. Brazil: From August 1, 2024, the Brazilian government will impose a 20% import tax on imported goods with a value of no more than US$ 50, and individual imported drugs will be exempted from any additional tax. According to the latest law, small cross-border parcels worth less than $50 are subject to 20% import tax and 17% goods and services turnover tax (ICMS) of each state. For imported parcels worth more than $50, 60% of the import tax and 17% of the turnover tax on goods and services remain unchanged, and parcels worth more than $50 but less than $3,000 can be reduced or exempted by $20.
(2) Countermeasures and strategic suggestions
1. Optimize products and services: always pay attention to changes in consumer demand and market trends, and constantly optimize product quality and service level to meet market demand according to market feedback and regulatory requirements.
2. Strengthen brand building: Apart from "price attraction", "trust in the brand" has become the primary reason for overseas consumers to choose China’s global brand, and this trust does not necessarily come from well-known brands. Consumer research shows that among the reasons why overseas consumers choose China brands, well-known brands account for only 15%, ranking last, indicating whether overseas consumers can complete the mental occupation of China brands from initial curiosity to intermediate recognition to final trust, which mainly depends on.Whether product tonality and brand concept can fit with consumers’ core values.In view of the new demands of overseas consumers for a series of diversified brands, such as product quality, value concept and social experience, the supply side will be forced to continuously carry out high-end product transformation and upgrading and brand core value shaping to fully meet the "rigid+flexible" consumption needs of overseas consumers.
Therefore, more and more cross-border e-commerce companies have begun to increase investment in brand building, and enhance brand influence through marketing and services to enhance user stickiness and resist the pressure of price competition.

3. Diversified market layout: With the intensification of Sino-US trade friction, cross-border e-commerce enterprises in China need to increase their investment in emerging markets. Countries such as Southeast Asia and Africa have gradually become new growth points, which can not only disperse market risks, but also bring new business models and growth opportunities.
4. Multi-channel layout: Affected by platform compliance and policy uncertainty, domestic sellers pay more attention to multi-channel layout. Research shows that nearly half of sellers plan to try multi-platform layout and new channels in 2023. At the same time, emerging media will also become the core channel for sellers to focus on and plan to expand, so as to deepen localization service capabilities and expand new traffic portals.
5. Refined operation: Data show that with the intensification of market competition, both factory sellers, trade sellers and consumer brands have reached a consensus on refined operation as a key means to enhance competitiveness. Refined operation can bring many benefits, such as improving management efficiency, improving consumption experience and speeding up market response, but it also means higher management and operation costs. Software service tools for cross-border export e-commerce can help sellers realize process automation, data intelligence and operation accuracy, and control the cost of sellers at a low level, which provides strong support for cross-border export sellers in China to move forward steadily in the wave of global e-commerce.
6. Pay attention to changes in international policies: Enterprises need to pay close attention to changes in international trade policies and adopt corresponding coping strategies. We can use tools such as global trade analysis model to quantitatively analyze and predict the changes of international trade policy, so as to adjust overseas layout and operation strategy in advance.
7. Comply with international laws and regulations: Compliance of cross-border export e-commerce is an indispensable part in the development of platforms and businesses, including taxation and intellectual property rights. Therefore, it is necessary to deeply understand and strictly abide by the laws and regulations of the target market to avoid legal risks caused by illegal operations. Taking brand compliance as an example, according to public information of iResearch, in the United States in 2022 alone, China enterprises as defendants accounted for as high as 82.5% in cross-border e-commerce scene disputes, and the average amount of compensation reached 94,000 US dollars. However, small and medium-sized enterprises are the main groups of cross-border export e-commerce, and the cost of establishing a sound legal team is high. Therefore, cooperation with third-party compliance service providers has become an important consideration for cross-border sellers.
8. Technology empowerment, cost reduction and efficiency improvement: In the future, with the deep application of digital technologies such as big data, cloud computing and AI in all aspects of cross-border export service links, the operational efficiency of products will be further improved, the cost of providing products and services will be reduced, and the rapid development of cross-border services will be promoted.
This article comes from WeChat WeChat official account: Xiaguang Think Tank, Author: Xiaguang Think Tank




















